DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ U.S. Treasury yields have peaked, say strategists for fourth straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months, though not as sharply as forecast previously, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters, who said for a fourth month running in even greater numbers that the 10-year note yield had peaked. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield breached the 5% mark last month for the first time since July 2007, more than a full percentage point above its August low of 3.96%. Yet, when asked whether the 10-year note yield had peaked in the current cycle, an overwhelming 94% majority of respondents, 30 of 32, said it had. The interest-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield , currently at 5.04%, was expected to decline about 20 basis points by end-January, before falling to 4.00% in a year, according to the survey. If realized, this would mean a complete reversal of the inverted spread between yields of U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - historically a reliable indicator of impending recession - by end-October 2024.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Thomas Simons, Mike Sanders, Sarupya Ganguly, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Anitta Sunil, Sujith Pai, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Jefferies, Madison Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Israel

☆ Bank of England to leave rates on hold through mid-2024, cut in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A pedestrian walks past the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. Last week, the Bank surprised markets by not raising rates, sending sterling to a six-month low, but signalled rates would remain higher for longer. Still, over 40% of economists, 15 of 37, who answered an extra question said the BoE should hike rates again this year. Sixteen economists predicted Bank Rate at 5.00% in the third quarter, 10 forecast 4.75%, six said 4.50%, one expected 4.25% and one 3.75%. The European Central Bank was predicted to cut rates in the third quarter next year but the Federal Reserve might start in the second quarter, separate Reuters polls showed.

Persons: Hollie Adams, The BoE, BoE, James Smith, James Rossiter, Shaloo Shrivastava, Anitta Sunil, Purujit Arun, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Rights, Bank, Monetary, The, ING Financial Markets, TD Securities, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 5.50% in September, significant minority expect further hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Nearly all 65 economists in the Sept. 11-13 Reuters poll expected the BoE to hike its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% this month, in line with interest rate futures pricing. Survey medians showed the Bank Rate was expected to peak at 5.50%, matching rate futures pricing, and stay there until mid-2024. While 28 economists expected the Bank Rate to peak at 5.75%, two said 6.00%. Nine of 16 gilt-edged Market Makers (GEMMs) that participated in the poll predicted a 5.50% peak rate and seven said 5.75%. A separate Reuters poll showed average house prices in Britain were predicted to fall 4% this year and flatline in 2024 before rising in 2025.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann, Shaloo Shrivastava, Anitta Sunil, Purujit Arun, Maneesh Kumar, Pranoy, Ross Finley, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, HSBC, MPC, Royal Institution, Chartered Surveyors, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Investec

With average house prices having surged 25% during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest rates and higher living costs in a struggling economy have driven many to rent while they anticipate house prices will fall. All but one predicted prices would fall this year. House prices were forecast to stagnate next year, an upgrade compared to the 2.0% fall predicted three months ago. That comes after many years of close to zero and negative policy interest rates following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic. Eleven of 14 respondents said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Sebastian Schnejdar, Indradip Ghosh, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Housing, ING, European Central Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

☆ ECB to pause in September, say slim majority of economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. In the poll 37 - or 53% - of 70 economists predict no move at the Sept 14 meeting compared with 47% in last month's poll, which would mean the ECB leaving its deposit rate at 3.75%, in line with market pricing. The poll also showed 53% expecting a deposit rate rise to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December. While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. However, inflation setbacks could still force a rate hike later this year," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, bloc's, Lagarde, Bas van Geffen, Michael Kirker, Prerana Bhat, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Sarupya Ganguly, John Stonestreet Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank, spillovers, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Ukraine, European

WARSAW/PRAGUE, July 6 (Reuters) - Central European currencies are expected to weaken over the next 12 months with the Polish zloty taking the biggest hit, a Reuters poll showed, as higher inflation compared to the euro zone and the prospect of interest rate cuts weigh. But with Hungary's central bank having already started to loosen policy and more rate cuts predicted in the region this year, analysts expect currencies to fall. The forint is expected to fall 1.3% to 380.0 against the euro, according to the poll. "Although consumer prices in Romania are largely sensitive to the exchange rate, it could soon allow the central bank to let leu depreciate slightly." The Czech crown is forecast to weaken the least of the region's currencies, falling 0.1% to 23.775.

Persons: Marcin Sulewski, HUF, Peter Virovacz, Jakub Kratky, leu, Jason Hovet, Alan Charlish, Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Sarupya Ganguly, Conor Humphries Organizations: National Bank of Hungary, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: WARSAW, PRAGUE, Poland, Romanian, Romania, Prague, Warsaw

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.50% over next two meetings: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Last week, the central bank surprised investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point, taking Bank Rate to 5.00%, and said there had been "significant" news suggesting persistently high inflation in Britain would take longer to fall. Bank Rate is now expected to peak at 5.50% next quarter following 25 basis point hikes at the BoE's August and September meetings, medians in the poll taken after the Bank's Thursday move showed. In a June 14 poll, policymakers were expected to draw a halt at 5.00% next quarter. "Are they going to be happy with just one more 25 basis points in August? Forty of 52 poll participants said the Bank would dial down the pace to 25 basis points on August 3 but gave a high median 40% chance of another 50 basis point lift.

Persons: James Smith, Stefan Koopman, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Bank, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Bank of England to press on with rate hikes, peak at 5.00% in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.

Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec

☆ Mexico peso's expected fall to be broken by favourable rate spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BUENOS AIRES, June 8 (Reuters) - An expected fall in Mexico's peso will likely be cushioned by its favorable interest rate spread, although there is a wide range of views on the currency's prospects over the coming year, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed. It was also the best projection for the 12-month period in the survey's recent history, reflecting positive sentiment towards the big margin between Mexico's benchmark rate, currently at 11.25%, and the U.S fed funds rate range of 5.00%-5.25%. "This is particularly stark for MXN, whose volatility is the most subdued despite its arguably greater sensitivity to U.S.-driven risk-off shocks." In Brazil, the real , is set to fall 4.5% in one year to 5.14 per U.S. dollar from 4.91 this week. The real is up 7.7%, confounding detractors who saw it crashing early on in President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government.

Persons: Optimists, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Gabriel Burin, Anitta Sunil, Aditi Verma, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Mexico's, U.S, Brazil, Buenos Aires, Bengaluru

☆ British home prices to slip but won't come crashing down, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Partly finished houses are seen on a new housing development under construction in Liverpool, Britain June 2, 2023. Yes, prices will fall this year but by single digits," said Tony Williams at consultancy Building Value. From peak to trough home prices will fall 7.5%, the median in the poll showed. "Persistent core inflation and wage pressures will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates until 2024, which means mortgage rates won't fall any further until next year," said Andrew Wishart at Capital Economics. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Mumal Rathore and Anitta Sunil; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Phil Noble, Tony Williams, Andrew Wishart, BoE, Michael McGill, Barratt, Russell Quirk, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Anitta Sunil, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: Liverpool, Britain, Britain's, London

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

British government bond prices tumbled in the days after the data was released as investors added to bets high inflation will force the BoE to carry on raising interest rates, while lenders have been withdrawing mortgage deals. Meanwhile, 27 of 47 saw Bank Rate at 5.00% or higher by end-September. Bank Rate was seen sitting at 5.00% until early next year, hitting the wallets of indebted consumers already feeling the pinch from a cost of living crisis. All but three of 39 common contributors to this poll and the last one lifted their year-end prediction. The Bank needs to push back against the risk high inflation proves unexpectedly sticky, and may need to raise interest rates further, Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel said last week.

Persons: BoE, Simon Wells, Kallum Pickering, Jonathan Haskel, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Chizu Organizations: Bank of England, of England, HSBC, Bank, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Berenberg

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists who participated in the latest Reuters poll, predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing. Beyond that, 59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year. Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations. "We maintain the first rate cut in March 2024. In an exclusive interview with Reuters this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a much higher peak policy rate than currently expected, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

Search resuls for: "Anitta Sunil"

15 mentions found